China\\\'s feed corn consumption is seriously underestimated or more than 200 million tons

Feed consumption is the main force of corn consumption in China, accounting for about 60% of China's total corn consumption. According to the data of national grain and oil information center, the proportion of corn consumption in China in 2017 / 2018 was 60% for feed, 31% for deep processing, 8% for food and 1% for seed use. However, some market participants believe that its feed corn data underestimated about 30 million tons, and corn deep processing data overestimated about 10 million tons.

Rapid growth of corn feed consumption in China

The main function of corn in feed is to provide energy, which can be replaced by a variety of energetic grains. The common and large number of substitutes are wheat, sorghum, barley, rice bran, cassava, etc.

Therefore, the analysis of corn consumption in feed should start from the perspective of energy consumption, and the research on the consumption of corn in feed should include its energy substitution raw materials.

In China, corn substitutes are mainly wheat, sorghum, barley, rice and so on. The main driving forces of substitution are quality problems and cost advantages. In the wheat harvest season, rainy weather often occurs, resulting in sprout wheat from time to time, because of the quality problems lead to bud wheat replacing corn every year. There is also one of the most important cost advantages. Generally, imported sorghum and barley are largely used for corn substitution because of the cost advantage.

In the past few years, China's feed consumption of corn showed a rapid growth trend, not because of the price advantage of corn after marketization, but more because of the growth of China's overall feed consumption. Because while corn consumption has increased significantly, the number of related substitutes is also growing rapidly. Obviously, in the new era, the improvement of people's quality of life and the yearning for a better life, people's demand from eating enough to eating well, and the growth of consumption of meat, eggs and milk is the main factor of corn consumption growth.

Feed corn consumption may be seriously underestimated

It is understood that China's pig breeding scale ranks first in the world, and the consumption of Pig Breeding Corn accounts for more than half of China's total. People usually judge the overall situation of China's aquaculture industry by the pig inventory and the ratio of pig to grain.

Since 2013, the number of live pigs and breeding sows in China has shown a downward trend. The corresponding consumption of feed corn or energy grain should continue to decrease in theory. However, both the ratio of pig to grain and the market price of pigs have dropped to the lowest level for many years.

This shows that the current pig inventory is high, which is in a serious stage of production exceeding demand, which is in contradiction with the continuous decline of pig inventory data.

If we analyze the change of corn consumption by feed culture in China from another angle, according to relevant experience, there is a relatively stable and highly positive correlation between energy and protein in feed formula.

China's soybean imports (3554, 3.00, 0.08%) continued to grow, indicating that the consumption of soybean meal (3263, - 5.00, - 0.15%) increased year-on-year.

It is estimated that China's soybean import in 2017 / 2018 may reach about 94.73 million tons. Assuming that all imported soybeans are used for crushing and all domestic soybeans are consumed in food consumption, and the soybean meal yield of imported soybeans is 78%, the annual soybean meal output will reach about 74 million tons. If the ratio of corn to soybean meal is 3 ∶ 1, the annual demand of corn is 222 million tons; if the ratio of corn to soybean meal is 2 ∶ 1, the annual demand of corn is 148 million tons; if the ratio of corn to soybean meal is 2.5 ∶ 1, the annual demand of corn is 185 million tons.

Therefore, we try to draw two inferences

First, China's feed and breeding corn consumption has increased year by year.

In the past few years, the import of soybean has increased by a large margin every year, which indicates that the continuous growth of feed consumption will certainly lead to the growth of corn consumption.

Second, China's feed corn consumption may be seriously underestimated.

Considering that the proportion of scattered households in China is still large, according to the traditional heavy energy consumption habit, the consumption of corn may exceed 200 million tons.

Steady growth of industrial feed output in China

There are three parts in the statistics of industrial feed in China, i.e. formulated feed, concentrated feed and additive feed.

Generally speaking, compound feed is a finished product, which can feed animals directly. It is the foundation of modern feed industry in China. From the perspective of the development of industrial feed, the output of formulated feed in China has almost doubled in the past 10 years, and the consumption of corn driven by this part has also doubled.

Compared with compound feed, the output of concentrated feed and additive feed increased and decreased. Concentrated feed is a semi-finished product, which needs to be mixed with corn and other energy feed; additive feed is the seasoning, which needs to be mixed with soybean meal and corn.

In the past eight years, additive feed increased by 2 million tons and concentrated feed decreased by 7.7 million tons. According to the general formula, the proportion of additive feed equivalent to compound feed is more than 25 times, while that of concentrated feed is generally no more than 5 times. Obviously, the increase of additives can make up for the decrease of concentrate feed.

On the whole, the combination of concentrated feed and additive feed also increased the consumption of feed corn.

Although from the traditional data analysis, China's feed culture corn consumption should be greatly reduced, but because of the statistical caliber problem, it has been difficult to reflect China's breeding data, can no longer be used as a basis for judging feed consumption. Based on the objective analysis of soybean, feed industry data and pig to grain ratio, corn consumption in feed industry in China has increased.

Large scale concentrated feeding